The GEO-7 scenarios investigate projections concerning the global environmental crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation and desertification, and pollution and waste.

The scenario analysis is guided by a selection of internationally agreed goals related to the global environmental crises, and associated modelled indicators used to monitor their achievement:

• For climate change the long-term temperature goal of the Paris agreement of “…holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels…”. Global mean temperature increase is the main indicator.
• For biodiversity loss “Goal A” of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) concerning protecting and restoring biodiversity to bend the trend of biodiversity loss. Mean species abundance (terrestrial) is the main indicator.
• For land degradation the goal of the UNCCD to achieve land degradation neutrality, and target 2 of the GBF to restore 30 per cent of degraded ecosystems by 2030 are used. Land cover changes, and soil organic carbon contents are the main indicators.
• The pollution goal is based on the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines, with a target of PM2.5 of 25 µg/m3 was selected. Concentration of PM2.5 is the main indicator.

Besides these goals, further relevant indicators were also explored to investigate changes in nutrient pollution, human well-being, resource use efficiency, and others.

The Current Trends presents projections assuming current trends and efforts, with the absence of strict policies to address the global environmental crises. In contrast to this, the two Transformation Pathways describe alternative routes towards meeting multiple environmental and socio-economic goals. These two normative target-seeking scenarios present Behaviour-focused and Technology-focused transformations.

The scenarios explore transformations of various human systems, with a specific focus on the energy, food, materials/waste, economics and finance, and the environmental system. Multiple models covering these systems were interlinked to produce the scenario projections. Thus, the models exchange relevant information amongst them in order to produce single integrated scenarios covering all system transformations required to meet the goals.

These models cover key elements of the five systems, global environmental crises and their related goals, and the environmental and socioeconomic implications. The models are linked to account for critical interdependencies and feedback between the component models. Results are compared with established scenario databases and existing literature to address uncertainty and consistency with the broader scenario community. While the methodology provides valuable insights, it is limited in terms of scenario scope, issue coverage and the level of aggregation.

These scenarios are based on a framework that includes well-established and validated models extensively used by other global environmental assessments, including those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the International Resource Panel (IRP).

Relevant models per system/goal and indicator are shown in the table below.

The exchange of data between different models required harmonization of results from multiple models. This included regional harmonization from native model definitions to the UN-5 Region definition, and also ensuring that base year (2025) values from different models align. Furthermore, for the purposes of sharing data amongst GEO-7 authors, many results were rounded to a relevant number of significant figures. Processing of the results can be found here

Further information of these scenarios are available in the GEO-7 final report. For details on the methodology and selection of goals please consult chapter 9 and its appendix. For projections and implications of the Current Trends, please consult chapter 10. For the narratives, projections, and scenario assumptions of the transformation pathways please consult chapter 11 and its appendix.